Which Altman Model Do We Actually Use?

  • Miroslava Dolejšová Tomas Bata University in Zlín
Keywords: Prediction of bankruptcy, Altman model, Misinterpretation, small enterprises, one-sample t-test

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to critically evaluate the terms that are described by various authors in Czech literature, compare those terms with the terms used by the original Altman model, use data from selected enterprises to show whether enterprises could be considered at risk of bankruptcy due to such inaccuracies and verify whether the average Z-score values for small enterprises within the Zlín Region are greater than 3. The data were analysed using a one-sample t-test and the Altman model for enterprises that are not publicly-traded. Financial statements for 2007 through 2011 were used in the data analysis.The one-sample t-test showed that the sample of 32 small enterprises from the Zlín Region had good financial health. The largest percentage change that was associated with a decline in performance was demonstrated when adding net profit to retained earnings (-16.64%). The largest percentage change that was associated with an improvement in performance was demonstrated when using current assets instead of working capital (33.07%). Replacing retained earnings with net profit reduced the enterprise’s performance (a percentage change of -24.43%). Adding funds from profit and net profit to retained earnings reduced performance by 0.17 percentage points.We recommend using net working capital to calculate the X1 ratio. Retained earnings should be used to calculate the X2 ratio. Only sales should be used to calculate the X5 ratio. For manufacturing enterprises that are not publicly-traded, we recommend using equation (8). Publicly-traded enterprises may use equation (2). Enterprises that provide services and enterprises in emerging markets may use equation (4).
Published
2015-03-09
Section
Articles